If you are a citizen of the United States, are you sure there was much to be thankful for this holiday?  We have leaders who cannot tell us the truth because they do not know – or want to admit -- what the truth is.

Our recession was caused mostly by excess spending on our part and so we must learn to be more frugal.  We are told this recovery will move faster if we, as consumers, show confidence by spending more.  While this creates confusion, at least the blame for the freefall can be kept on us and not our leaders or the banks.

The recession is over, at least to some extent.  Profits are back to pre-recession levels, even if most of the money is being made in the finance sector of our economy.

Our leaders tell us employment will improve.  Based on what?  Profits increased because productivity increased.  This means companies are achieving their goals without restoring or adding jobs.  The bulk of profits are not coming from manufacturing, mining or growing something – the only functions that increase real wealth.   There are no easy explanations to how will the jobs return?

Working with our hands and back is no longer a noble profession.  Manufacturing cannot return to its peak because there are not enough people willing to work the jobs.  We extol the benefits of such a career for everyone but our own sons and daughters.

New jobs being created pay less with smaller benefits.  New auto making jobs at GM pay $15 per hour.  The new car builders work alongside the old workers who make $28 per hour which is the same pay those who worked in the shut down plants earned.

Jobs that went overseas are only part of the drop in employment.  Jobs that no longer exist due to increased productivity or because we don’t need certain products or services are a larger part of the unemployment picture.

We no longer command respect overseas.  Until a few years ago we were able to gobble up every product from every friendly country to help keep their economies strong.  Last year Americans bought 460,000 vehicles made in South Korea, but only 6,000 American-made cars and trucks were sold in that country.

You get the drift.

More balance in trade was just around the corner as President Obama headed to the recent G20 conference in Seoul.  He was about to tell his fellow heads of state to cut the currency manipulation so we could sell them more products.   A lousy-timed announcement by our Federal Reserve that it would print $600 billion more in US greenbacks  -- a form of currency manipulation – sapped Obama’s negotiating power.  “Clean up your own act,” our President was told.

And what of President Obama?   Senators such as Mitch McConnell and Jim DeMint, goaded by talk-show radio, claim the top Republican objective is to defeat him in 2012.  This goal gets more traction than putting people back to work, reducing the deficits and winning wars for two reasons.  First, and always, Obama is (at least half) black.  Second, these problems are obviously beyond their ability to solve.

Not everyone should have had a gloomy Thanksgiving.  If you are in the higher income ranks or even retired with a better pension than the next generation will ever see, you had much to be thankful for.

We now fight wars without the draft.  If more bodies are needed, we create additional entrepreneurial opportunities for contractors.  We suffer no material shortages due to the wars.  We have even found a way to hand the next generation the bill to pay for these wars.   President Bush actually ramped up two wars while cutting everyone’s personal income taxes.  A difficult (and reckless) trick was made possible by lack of opposition from the Democrats.

For rich Americans, at least the short term future looks bright.  Despite Obama’s campaign pledge, tax cuts for upper brackets will extend another two years or more (and the deficits be damned!).   All efforts will be focused on limiting inflation because the accompanying higher interest on the deficit would destroy us.

Rich people should not see their wealth shrink as a result.

That is also good for poor people.  Less inflation means their smaller incomes will last longer.

Hmm.

Perhaps everyone has reason to be thankful.  Thankful that our ancestors came over here, beat the crap out of the Indians and settled on this rich land.  Now all we need is a way to stop more people from coming here and sharing in our wonderful experiences.

R. Budd Dwyer, the affable Meadville Republican destined to be governor, then fell quickly from favor and grace and, finally, killed himself at a Harrisburg press conference 23 years ago.  He was an enigma for more reasons than that.

Dwyer is back in the news because a documentary movie is being shown in Harrisburg and may eventually reach mainstream TV if it doesn’t play theaters throughout PA.   Likely his story never made it to a melodramatic made-for-TV movie because for two decades his image has been zealously guarded by his wife Joanne and son Robert.  Mrs. Dwyer died of natural causes last year.

Dwyer, to the second when he pulled the trigger of a 347 Magnum handgun before a horde of reporters and camera people, maintained he was innocent in a bribery scheme designed to enrich him $300,000 in exchange for help on a state contract.  The contract was never entered into and no money ever passed hands, leaving authorities relying on he-said, he-said evidence.

The documentary focuses on William Smith, former Dauphin County Republican chairman and self-admitted go-between for Dwyer and John Torquato Jr., Johnstown businessman seeking the contract.  Smith now says he perjured himself to gain a better deal with the Feds for himself.  Smith indicates Dwyer never knew about the $300,000 offer.

What drew suspicions to Dwyer was that Torquato was a member of a notorious family sometimes linked to organized crime.  More than one wag opined that while Torquato’s father was a longtime Democrat party boss, even Democrat officeholders would hesitate to do business with him.

State treasurer at the time, Dwyer had begun his career as a teacher before winning a Meadville-based state House seat.  In 1970 he defeated Republican incumbent Jim Willard, of Mercer County, for the 50th State Senate office in a bitter and bloody Republican primary.  The district was comprised of Mercer and Crawford counties.  Willard won 99 of the 100 precincts in Mercer but Dwyer won every precinct in Crawford by a greater margin.

Popular with the PSEA and working labor unions, despite his GOP registration, Dwyer rode the Reagan wave to the state treasurer’s office in 1980.  In 1984 he won re-election by less than two percent in a battle with Erie Democrat Al Benedict.  The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette refused to endorse anyone, claiming both were too tainted by unrelated scandals.

Dwyer’s fall from grace began a year or two earlier.  In yearning to succeed Dick Thornburgh as governor in 1986, Budd made a bad move.  Dwyer criticized Thornburgh for charging his wife’s expenses to the taxpayers when she accompanied the Governor on an overseas business junket and having state police ferry his son to a college in Connecticut.

PA politics is among the roughest on the planet, but an unwritten rule says thou shall never attack family members of your enemies.

Either Dwyer figured he could become Thornburgh’s successor without Thornburgh’s help or he didn’t think at all.  The relationship between Thornburgh and Dwyer became very frosty.  At a tourist promotion dinner both men were seated at the same table and never said a single word to each other throughout.

Dwyer’s supporters believed Thornburgh encouraged Central PA US Attorney Jim West to launch the corruption probe against the Treasurer.  West and Thornburgh were buddies because Thornburgh had served as US Attorney for Western PA.  Then, too, even Federal Judge Malcolm Muir was a GOP appointee and active politically before going on the bench.  Muir resisted Dwyer’s lawyers basing their defense on inconsistencies with Smith’s testimony and bragged he was not intimidated by Dwyer’s clout.

Dwyer was the consummate politico.  In his days members of the senate were permitted to hand out a limited number of scholarships to constituents attending state schools.  Even though a Republican in a district that now has not voted for a Democrat in 75 years, Dwyer would make sure sons and daughters of union leaders were on his scholarship list.

More than once he was observed thanking other legislators for a hike in pay that he had been afraid to vote for, but needed as much as the others.

Most Harrisburg journalists assumed Dwyer had called the press conference to announce his resignation as state treasurer.  The following day he was to be sentenced.  Instead, he killed himself.  Many defenders believe the suicide was meant to save his pension for his wife since the moment of his sentence he would no longer be eligible.

A legislator who never had the guts to vote for his own pay raise, makes the ultimate sacrifice for his family?

Go figure.

If Kathy Dahlkemper, from Erie, would have won a second term to Congress, representing District 3, she would have had an even tougher go of it in 2012.

The new hurdle, higher than any single opponent and perhaps at least as tough as national issues is “reapportionment.”

Drawing new boundaries for legislative districts based on the latest US Census data has always been the ultimate political hardball game.  Republicans always performed better (for their own interests) than Democrats and more so in PA where my party has mostly been a no-show for decades.

Every ten years the Federal Government takes this census, identifying you and me, establishing where we live and a whole host of other data.  The 2010 census data will begin to be published shortly.   Of interest to political people is the population data because results show what areas have enjoyed growth and other regions that have lost residents.  Based on the 1960s one-man/one-vote Supreme Court dictate, this requires drawing new lines for both state and federal legislative districts.

One-man/one-vote mostly mandates that all districts be of closely-equal size in population.  Most other factors are left to those who draw the lines.  In PA a commission made up of appointees of the legislature come up with the plan which both state legislative groups approve and then on to the Governor for final signature.

In PA both House and Senate are in GOP hands beginning in 2011 and Tom Corbett, another Republican, becomes governor late in January.  One or more activist groups will challenge the results based on how they think some block of voters are getting screwed by disregarding some Constitutional issue.

The Republicans have that avenue sealed off also.  In 2009 they helped Joan Orie Melvin win an open Supreme Court seat.  Now the GOP controls that court, 4-3, and will be certain to resolve any reapportionment disputes in that party’s favor.

Next year’s reapportionment can only benefit the GOP.  Here is how Congressional districts will be affected.  Currently Dems hold a 12-7 advantage, but based on the 2010 election that lineup flips to 12-7 Republican.  Population dictates PA must lose one seat for the next ten years.  Not only do we have less population, the shift favors the southeast which has seen more people move in while Western PA must deal with smaller counts.   This means in the newly drawn 18 districts those in Southeast PA will be smaller in land size and ones in the west will be larger.

Gerrymandering of District 3 in Northwest PA is more predictable than others because state borders mean it can only grow in size to the south and east.  Mike Kelly, from Butler, just won the seat.  It is likely the GOP does not want to extend it farther south to New Castle where Dems outnumber.  More likely, the boundary lines will shift to include population in Glenn Thompson’s District 5 where registration is so overwhelming that Republicans could hold the seat if they ran Bernard Madoff.

The real mischief will take place in the southwest.  To get down to 18 districts, Republicans may figure a way to force two of three sitting Democrats to run against each other.  Incumbents who need to be concerned are Jason Altmire (4th District), Mike Doyle (14th District) and newly-elected Mark Critz (12th District).

History repeats.

Two decades ago former PA Auditor-General Don Bailey, from Westmoreland County, won a seat in Congress immediately before a new census.  Republicans controlled the mechanism then and forced this outstanding young Democrat to run against Murtha.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.2 million voters, my Party still can’t get it right.

This is no criticism of new US Representative Mike Kelly.  He appears to be an intelligent fellow and fully intends to do right by his constituents.  Truth is that timing always trumped competence with the US electorate.  In my opinion, Kathy D was the most competent legislator, state or federal, in my time.

Some things are not meant to be.

Less than three weeks ago we published a blog proposing a trade war as possibly the only way we could begin to bring back jobs.  (October 24 – “Trade War needed to bring jobs back to the U.S.”)

This week we learn there may be such an event, but with this hitch.  Instead of the war being initiated by the U.S. and waged against China, all other countries that rely on exports may hoist their economic WMDs against both of these super powers.

No doubt President Obama had gone to Seoul intending to get many countries (with China at the top of the list) to cease manipulating their currencies.  We have been told that if every country allowed currency to float as a matter of free trade, our exports would be more price competitive, thereby increasing jobs here.

The Associated Press reports a dispute over whether China and the U.S. are manipulating their currencies has stymied representatives of every country attending the G-20 economic summit in Seoul.  The representatives are not only unable to forge solutions to problems, they can’t even agree on agendas for the meetings.

The monkey wrench is an announcement two weeks ago that the Federal Reserve would buy $600 Billion in Treasury bonds.  Because the Fed must print new money to make these buys, a primary effect is to lessen the value of the dollar.  This is construed to be “currency manipulation” by leaders of other countries because the action will – to some extent – make our exports cheaper to buy.

A bill that assesses penalties on countries that manipulate currency to cheapen imports passed by a lopsided margin in the U.S. House.  Even a majority of the Republicans voted for the bill.  Observers believe it may never see the light of day in the Senate.   Moreover, if it did pass the Senate, there is a good possibility that President Obama would veto it.

“Currency manipulation” has never been a partisan issue.  It only seems to matter to U.S. companies that cannot outsource to retain the business and those citizens who become unemployed as a result.  Until one side or the other ends the practice of appointing Goldman Sachs executives to key policy and financial positions, the practice will continue.   The Goldman people have been able to convince one president after another that “currency manipulation” is a necessary tool to make other countries like us.

Recently defeated Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3) was a prime sponsor of the bill.  Reportedly she was told by the White House to “butt out.”

She didn’t.

Pundits who want to be loved should find black-and-white subjects to write about.   These, however, are hard to find.

The Rendell to Corbett transfer of power in Harrisburg will be the sixth transition that I have been privy to.   This one is going to be more revolutionary than any other in modern times.

Like it or not, Tom Corbett is going to alter the workplace landscape in the Keystone state.

None of the three Democrat governors of modern times presided over a truly liberal agenda.   Bob Casey was socially conservative.  Milton Shapp and Ed Rendell, while of a liberal bent, had to deal with GOP-controlled Senates.   Shapp was able to deal with enough Republican state senators in the 70s to get an income tax on the books.   Rendell’s successes were limited to major increases in financing – for public education in the earliest years of child development and for public works through bond financing.

Corbett is much more conservative than Dick Thornburgh.  Between Corbett and Tom Ridge, philosophically, there is no comparison.  Take right-to-work laws as an example.

Even though Ridge enjoyed Republican control of both the House and Senate his labor ties, first fashioned when he was a U.S. Rep in Northwest PA, convinced him to oppose right-to-work.  More than once he told legislative leaders from his own Party that right-to-work would not happen while he was governor.

It didn’t.

Beginning in late January next year all elements will be in the place for a right-to-work law of some fashion to be passed and signed.  Corbett does not oppose right-to-work and both houses of the legislature have sizable GOP majorities.  Right-to-work can pass without a single Democrat vote.

The Taft-Hartley Act allows each state to adopt their own right-to-work laws.  Basically, with some variations, right-to-work allows workers to NOT join a labor union as a condition of employment.  To add insult to organized labor, if a union represents the workers at a work site, it must collectively bargain for pay, benefits and working conditions and represent a worker in grievance issues whether the worker is a dues paying member or not.

Some 22 states currently have right-to-work laws and all are contiguous.  Begin at Virginia; go south to Florida and west to Arkansas.  The border-to-border spine of the U.S., Texas to North Dakota, has wings in Iowa and Wyoming.  Wyoming then abuts four more far west states.

According to “American Thinker” web site, none of the right-to-work states carried President Obama in 2008.

Expect the same right-wing players (like the U.S. Chamber) in the 2010 elections to be at work in 2011.  The targets will be five industrial rust belt states – PA, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin because Republicans now control all state government there.  Moderate Republican legislators (are there any left?) will be offered ultra-large campaign contributions by these special interests in exchange for foresaking their labor friends.

In each of those states the law demands a “closed shop” which means workers must pay dues if a union exists at the workplace.

About 20 per cent of organized labor lives in these five rust belt states.  Almost universally, unemployment is lower in states that have right-to-work laws.

There is a bit of irony in what is about to happen.  The day after right-to-work legislation is introduced; Republican governors of these states will forecast that their business climate will improve.

As more of Obama’s recovery programs take hold, lifting the economy overall, Republican governors in these states will claim the reason for the uptick is right-to-work laws and their conservative stewardship of state finances.

This sets a scenario in 2012 of a battle between Obama and Republican governors as to who is responsible for getting America back to work.

Should we expect the PA Democratic Party leadership to accept responsibility for the massacre at the General Election of 2010?  Do we find out what happened, or just chalk it off to a national trend?  Was it a President who just doesn’t get it?

In case you were waiting for Game 6 of the World Series, this is what happened in the Keystone State at the 2010 General Election.

With a 1.2 million voter registration advantage and candidates for governor and US Senator who could walk and chew gum, Democrats lost both races.

On November 1 the PA delegation of representatives to the Congress of the United States was comprised of 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  The following day voters reversed those numbers.

The PA House of Representatives went from 104-99 in Democrat hands to at least 110-93 in favor of Republicans.  Four more House seats could fall to the GOP due to absentee ballots and recounts, potentially moving the margin to 114-89.  The net GOP gain will be at least 12 seats.

Democrats lost no seats in the state senate, but for the wrong reasons.  Republicans maintained a 30-20 margin in what is perhaps the most “gerrymandered” legislative body in the United States.  How does one party maintain control of 60 per cent of the seats in a legislature when the other party has 1.2 million more registered voters?  The road to that kind of success begins with ability to control reapportionments every decade.   In addition, Democrat Senators continue to field the most inept legislative campaign committee on the planet.

Speaking of reapportionment, don’t expect this Republican reign over the Keystone state to be short-lived.  The GOP  began to lay foundation to control reapportionment from this census at the 2009 elections.  Republican Joan Orie Melvin beat Democrat Jack Panella for a seat on the state Supreme Court, giving her party a 4-3 edge there.  This is important because that Court decides any challenges to the redistricting that will occur in 2011 in time to effect the 2012 elections.

As a result of this year’s elections, Republicans control the governorship and both legislatures and should have no conflicts in the redistricting process.  Since Pennsylvania stands to lose one Congressional seat in 2012, two of the seven remaining Democrats may run against each other if the GOP can find a way.

The 203 state house districts remain the same in number, but the Republicans can tinker with boundaries in 2012 that will increase or solidify their margin.

Certainly there is enough blame for this debacle to go around – Governor Ed Rendell, organized labor, leadership of the toothless Democrat State Committee.

Another disturbing event at this year’s election is that Philadelphia suburbs which had been trending Democrat returned to their Republican roots.  Democrats gambled that’s where they could win this election.

Wrong.

Four of the five lost Congressional seats are in eastern PA as are most of the upset state House districts.