(226) July 26, 2015 – In 1992, Bill Clinton defeated George H. W. Bush without winning a majority of the popular vote in the presidential campaign. Candidates with the same last name could repeat this happening in 2016.
Moreover, the reasons will be similar. In 1992, Ross Perot, a Texas businessman, ran as an independent. While he did not win a single electoral vote, Perot garnered almost 20 million individual ballots, representing about 19 percent of all who voted.
Former Arkansas Gov. Clinton (45 million votes representing 43 percent) denied sitting President Bush, a Texas Republican, from winning a second term in the White House. Bush polled 39 million votes representing a 37.5 percent finish.
Briefly, in June of that year, Perot actually polled higher than Clinton or Bush.
Next year a third party campaign by Donald Trump should score enough votes to prevent Bush’s son, Jeb, former Florida Governor, from beating Hillary Clinton, Bill’s wife, former US Senator and former Secretary of State.
Hillary will finish the long and boring campaign as she began earlier this year. Political handlers will carefully continue to script her speeches. She will elevate her ability to minimize substance in her speeches, answers and every other movement of her mouth.
She strives to become the first female President. Hillary began this campaign polling far higher than any other candidate in any other Party did. She is “middle of the road” and “ideologically acceptable” to enough voters even if her negatives are uncomfortably high.
The perception of Hillary is about as clear as mud. A large number of voters cannot answer the third question. First question: what do you think of Hillary for President?
Answer: “I don’t like her.” Second question: what don’t you like about her? Answer: “well, there’s the emails, Benghazi and family finances.” Third question: what about specifics on these issues? Answer: “well, you know . . .”
By the time voters catch on to her fence straddling such as not ticking off Wall Street, but still being a champion of the little people, November 8, 2016 will be here and Hillary Clinton will have squeaked into the White House. Her poll ratings will continue to have more downs than ups, but not enough to lose.
Hillary will defeat Jeb Bush after both have literally bought their nominations. They have far more access to political funds than anyone else.
In a three-way Bush loses more votes to Trump than Hillary. There are too many loonies registered Republican while the Democrats have a large segment of voters not very bright. That ideology sparks more Republican votes for Trump.
People run for President to either win or advance a cause. Both Hillary and Jeb are running to win. Bombastic Donald is a candidate to prove he is right. Trump will have to make a decision as to whether he continues to pursue the GOP nomination – and get screwed at the convention – or, pursue the independent route he already ponders. When the GOP convention rolls around next August that is too late for an effective independent campaign.
Trump knows getting elected President has more to do with organizational skills than rousing voters.
Winning delegates who will nominate you at a national convention is a lengthy and exhaustive process. Bunches of people need to begin getting signatures on their petitions as early as the upcoming holidays. In Pennsylvania, it is possible to have a miniscule amount of popular vote in the primary and still win a majority of the delegate slots. The two processes are separate and distinct. The popular vote actually counts very little for getting delegates.
The independent route is so complicated, varying from state to state, that there are not many political operatives familiar enough with the process to assemble a national independent vote campaign. Perot began early enough and actually got on the independent ballot in every state.
Trump might find himself unwelcome in that arena also.
Ralph Nader filed suit in Pennsylvania after it was discovered that PA House Democrat staffers worked on state time to challenge signatures on his nominating petitions in 2004. Commonwealth Court found violations of the law had indeed occurred, but too late to alter the election process.
This was actually the beginning of the “Bonusgate” scandal that paved the way for Tom Corbett to get elected Governor in 2010.
Bottom Line: Media could save money next year by refusing to pay those who cover this campaign. Entertainment should be their only remuneration. This writer already belongs to that group.