(279) Sunday, August 14, 2016 – On the morning of November 9 you will see the worst in our politic is not over.
A Clinton victory will just be the close of the latest chapter in the unraveling of the greatest – and longest lasting – democracy in the history of our planet.
Trump is certain to lose because either he never really wanted to win or he recognizes it is too late to turn over a new leaf.
The only suspense left in this race is whether enough time remains for Trump to tick off any more special interest groups. His single contribution to the Republican Party is to continue to verbally destroy his opponent. That may make it impossible for her to govern.
That tactic worked with President Obama. He had a short honeymoon going into office and has only enjoyed his ending service in high regard.
Hardly noticed in this stunning battle of disliked candidates is the realization that both candidates campaigned on a bunch of promises far removed from reality. Neither Hillary or Trump can deliver on most of their promises.
The operative word in each platform is “how.” Neither the voters or media care because what they say will happen will not.
In Hillary’s case she will not have a cooperative Congress. At best she might gain control of the Senate. Even there, however, she will not have 60 votes to stave off filibuster. Ted Cruz, with his sights on 2020, will continue to rule the Senate by obstruction.
Even if the Donald won, and both Houses remain in his Party’s control, he will not get his trade war, deport 11 million aliens, build a wall on the Mexican border or treat all domestic Muslims as spies. Big business still owns enough GOP votes to maintain their fat plundering. In his foolhardy ideas on national security, there are enough Republicans who do respect the Constitution to prevent that.
For Clinton, reality is just as harsh. Those who wanted Bernie Saunders and remained around to help defeat Trump will no longer have an interest. In their case, some may not resurface until 2024.
The country, its economy, security and health, is more likely to be smothered by gridlock until the middle of the next decade. Thanks to gerrymandering districts using the 2010 census data, the GOP will own Congress into the next decade.
Gerrymandering and the ability to stay on message are keeping the GOP afloat. They treated President Obama with disrespect during his first six years in office and re-focused on Hillary two years ago when it became obvious she was wanted to succeed him.
The saga of a sick Republican national party will begin all over again. Repeatedly, we will be told their first priority will be to deny Hillary a second term.
Expect a hyper-active lame duck session of Congress. They will ratify President Obama’s choice of a Supreme Court Justice, knowing they will never get such a centrist from Hillary.
Look for Republicans to rush through some version of the Trans Pacific Partnership, taking another advantage of Obama’s capitulation to them in the latter part of his second term.
The key to whether the country will survive could very well be in the hands of Republican Paul Ryan, who will be re-elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, albeit by a smaller majority.
GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich formed a unique partnership with the first Clinton President that resulted in a balanced budget, welfare reform, a healthy economy and the last successful attempt at gun control.
Ryan would have to abandon his party member Tea Baggers, now known as the Freedom Caucus, and corral a couple dozen moderates. These moderates would then vote with the Democrats to constitute a new majority. Ryan could knock several of Hillary’s objectives back to his idea of an acceptable level because he controls the agenda.
Bottom Line: There are factors that could spoil this scenario.
Trump may not take as long of a post-election vacation as he promised. Rather, he may see himself as the new head of the Republican Party and do his best to prevent the establishment from recapturing control. The current split we view in the Republican Party would continue to spew bitterness.
Expect Hillary to take her history lesson from President Truman. He continued denouncing the “Do-Nothing Congress” until it did something.