When Barack Obama ran for President in 2008, among a multitude of promises he made:
He was in full support of universal health care.
He would make it easier for unions to organize work sites.
He not only would not start any new wars he would close out ones that George Bush started.
He would stop the multi-national companies from moving jobs to foreign lands.
Because he changed his mind or failed to keep these promises and more, Obama is a shoo-in for re-election in 2012. His second term is in jeopardy only if he has a strong primary opponent where the President would be held to account for his broken promises. He won’t lose the primary, but damage inflicted then would weaken Mr. Obama for the fall campaign.
The President’s main advantage in a fall campaign is that no Republican candidate would dare remind voters that he had not fulfilled these campaign promises. If he or she did, this would encourage more Republican voters to vote for Obama. After all, there must be millions of voters that did not want to see any of these promises fulfilled. Why change horses, Republicans might conclude, and witness some of these issues actually happening through mismanagement of another George Bush?
What about those Republican governors who made so many promises in 2010 campaigns? Among their pledges:
“I will not raise taxes” or “I may even cut some taxes or fees.”
“We’re going to stop these public employee unions from getting contracts that call for automatic raises, bigger pensions and smaller paycheck deductions for health care.”
“The business climate shall improve by eliminating regulatory issues and adding tax breaks.”
Some of these Republican governors hit the ground running, fulfilling campaign promises immediately after being sworn in.
Governors Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio and Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania handed out corporate tax breaks literally on the first day. In Wisconsin and Ohio, legislation whisked through bi-cameral legislatures. Corbett one-upped his anti-labor cohorts by executive fiat, claiming a “re-interpretation” of a business tax rule would benefit companies to the tune of $200 million annually.
Again, compared to Obama’s timidity, Republican governors acted boldly. All of these governors were facing huge budget shortfalls and – by handing out new business tax break -- they boldly dug an even deeper financial hole.
Now, with varied styles, these governors have all declared war on public unions. They claim this is necessary to rein in state and local government expenditures and skyrocketing costs of public and higher education. We are told the war against labor is only for good government purposes.
Ironically, because they are fulfilling their campaign promises, these Republican governors are less likely to win re-election in 2014 than Obama is in 2012. As all of this continues to eat away at the resources of the declining middle class, look for major voter uprisings by then in those states.
In states where voters still have a say-so (known as “referendum states”) one or two governors could get recalled and not finish their terms. Gov. Walker may be the target of a recall campaign in Wisconsin in 2012, because the law there permits such actions.
Fortunately for Corbett, voters have far less to say about running their governments in Pennsylvania and he will remain in office until January, 2015, regardless.
In the meantime, put your money on President Barack “Hope-to-Nope” Obama against all comers in 2012.
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